Komparasi Metode Grey GM (1.1) Dan Grey Verhulst Untuk Prediksi Harga Sembako

Diah Ayu Fatimatus Zahro; Asfan Muqtadir; Andik Adi Suryanto

doi:10.30998/faktorexacta.v17i2.22408

Komparasi Metode Grey GM (1.1) Dan Grey Verhulst Untuk Prediksi Harga Sembako

Diah Ayu Fatimatus Zahro⁽¹⁾, Asfan Muqtadir^(2*), Andik Adi Suryanto⁽³⁾

(1) Universitas PGRI Ronggolawe
(2)
(3) Universitas PGRI Ronggolawe
(*) Corresponding Author

Abstract

This research explores the significance of basic commodities (sembako), such as rice and sugar, as essential necessities, with a focus on price fluctuations influenced by factors like seasonal variations and weather conditions. The pressing issue of rising food demand amid Indonesia's population growth is exacerbated by price fluctuations. The study utilizes grey forecasting method, specifically GM (1.1) and grey Verhulst, to predict the prices of basic commodities in East Java. The comparative results indicate that grey Verhulst excels in forecasting the prices of certain commodities, such as Premium Rice, while GM (1.1) proves more effective for the sugar category. This finding comes from an analysis of the ARPE value that shows the accuracy of the model in the price prediction. The research aims to contribute to addressing the challenges of price changes and instability in basic commodity prices influenced by seasonal factors. The lowest error rate for grey Verhulst is 1.9471% for premium rice, with the highest at 64.535% for sugar. For GM (1.1), the lowest error rate is 2.184% for medium rice, and the highest is 6.633% for premium rice.

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.30998/faktorexacta.v17i2.22408